Concepts of probability in radiocarbon analysis

Bernhard Weninger; Kevan Edinborough; Lee Clare; Olaf Jöris

doi:10.4312/dp.38.2

Authors

Bernhard Weninger Universität zu Köln, Institut für Ur- und Frühgeschichte, Radiocarbon Laboratory, Köln
Kevan Edinborough Institute of Archaeology, University College London
Lee Clare Universität zu Köln, Institut für Ur- und Frühgeschichte, Radiocarbon Laboratory, Köln
Olaf Jöris Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz, Forschungsbereich Altsteinzeit, Neuwied

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4312/dp.38.2

Keywords:

radiocarbon calibration, Bayesian inference, noncommutative algebra, noncommutative probability, chronology

Abstract

In this paper we explore the meaning of the word probability, not in general terms, but restricted to the field of radiocarbon dating, where it has the meaning of ‘dating probability assigned to calibrated 14C-ages’. The intention of our study is to improve our understanding of certain properties of radiocarbon dates, which – although mathematically abstract – are fundamental both for the construction of age models in prehistoric archaeology, as well as for an adequate interpretation of their reliability.