Podnebne projekcije temperature zraka in padavin za porečja Ledave, Pesnice in Vipave do konca 21. stoletja

Zalika ČREPINŠEK; Zala ŽNIDARŠIČ; Luka HONZAK; Tjaša POGAČAR

doi:10.14720/aas.2024.120.2.15456

Authors

Zalika ČREPINŠEK University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty
Zala ŽNIDARŠIČ Univerza v Ljubljani, Biotehniška fakulteta, Oddelek za agronomijo, Ljubljana
Luka HONZAK ARSO, Agencija republike Slovenije za okolje, Ljubljana
Tjaša POGAČAR Univerza v Ljubljani, Biotehniška fakulteta, Oddelek za agronomijo, Ljubljana

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14720/aas.2024.120.2.15456

Keywords:

project ‚CeVoTak‘, climate projections, Ledava, Pesnica, air temperature, precipitation

Abstract

As part of the project ‚CeVoTak‘, Integrated Management of Small Water Retention and Soil Erosion Prevention Measures in Agricultural Catchments, we studied changing temperature and precipitation conditions up to the year 2100. The study was conducted on agricultural lands in the catchments of the Ledava and Pesnica rivers in the sub-Pannonian region and the Vipava river in the sub-Mediterranean region. A common climate database was used to create the climate projections - RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations from the project EURO-CORDEX and scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The projections were prepared for three time periods 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 for 6 different regional climate models for average, minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of the ensemble of model simulations for all scenarios shows similar results for the basin of all rivers, an increase in temperature (maximum in winter, minimum in spring), with high confidence for all scenarios and periods. Projections of precipitation are less reliable, but show an increase in annual precipitation due to the winter increase. The use of climate change projections with expert interpretation is essential for determining the vulnerability of individual areas and building resilience through the implementation of climate change adaptation.

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