Use of general circulation models (GCM) for estimation of scenarios of climate change for Slovenia

Abstract

The paper deals with construction of climate change scenarios for an impact assessment in Slovenia on the basis of GCM validity and selection. GCMs currently provide the most advanced means of predicting the potential future climatic consequences of increasing amounts of radiatively active trace gases. Their ability to simulate current climate varies considerably from region to region. In present study seven general circulation models (CCCM, GF01, GFD3, GISS, HadCM2, UK89 and UKMO) results were analysed. The 1xCO2 outputs produced by seven GCMs were compared with observed temperature (T) and precipitation (RR) conditions in central Europe with particular attention devoted to the Slovenian territory. The GCM ability to simulate annual cycles of T and RR was examined. The CCCM and HadCM2 were selected as basis for constructing climate change scenarios, as they simulated reasonably well the observed patterns. According to both models 2 x CO2 climate assumes similar winter and summer warming (from 2,5 to 4,5 K), wetter winter (up to 40%) but dryer summer conditions (-25%). Incremental scenarios for temperature and precipitation in Slovenia will be based on the combination of changes prescribed by CCCM and HadCM2 models.